Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadim Skibitsky in an interview with the German publication t-online, he told whether it is possible to expect a Ukrainian offensive against Crimea in the near future and why Russia is slowly reaching its military limit.
“One of the strengths of the Russian army is the ability to quickly redeploy troops”
“The operation to liberate the Kherson region began back in September. Our activity in all directions has one goal: the complete recapture of all territories occupied by Russia.
The Russians transferred parts of landing troops to Kherson in advance, prepared defensive lines and took other measures to ensure their retreat. A few days earlier, they moved the residence of the occupation administration from Kherson to Henichesk. The Russian command was still surprised by the rapid advance of our troops. Kherson falls to the Russians in a very short time in February. It is said that the mayor at the time gave the Russians maps of the surrounding minefields. The Russian tank troops that left Crimea were already in Kherson six days later“.
According to Skibitsky, Russia is beginning to understand what is happening. The overthrow of Putin’s regime suddenly became possible.
“After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, it took another ten years to disintegrate. Putin has fewer resources, less power, fewer friends. The change of power can happen even earlier. We see that as a result of the mobilization in Russia, new units appear. In addition, strategic reserves are currently being formed in all military districts of Russia: in the Western, Southern, Eastern and Central military districts, as well as in their Northern Fleet. Officially, they are supposed to protect the borders of the Russian Federation, but of course these are forces that can be used for another attack on Ukraine. The purpose of the mobilization is to compensate for Russian losses in tactical battalion groups and other units. We’re watching that carefully because of course it increases the pressure at some points up front. Troops currently being withdrawn from Kherson may be transferred to Zaporozhye and Donetsk after being replenished with recruits“.
Read also: “The West does not want escalation, giving false signals to Russia about its weakness,” – a journalist about the situation in Poland
One of the strengths of the Russian army, the Ukrainian major general explained, is the ability to quickly redeploy troops.
“We take this seriously. We observed this during the preparation of our counteroffensive in Kherson, when Russia transferred there forces from Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Kharkiv, as well as from Russian territory. According to our calculations, it only took one month. Not enough. The Russian army has learned to quickly redeploy troops, including in the war in Syria. Now in Ukraine it is difficult in all directions. However, the enemy is carrying out most of the shelling in the Donetsk region. One of the goals of the so-called “special military operation”, according to Russian propaganda, is to support the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and fully annex both regions. During the eight months of the war, the Russian Federation did not achieve this goal, but in no case did it give up on it.
We are currently witnessing massive Russian activity near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, where Kremlin forces attack almost daily. We are being attacked there by both Wagner’s troops and units of the Southern Military District of Russia. It is a battle with great sacrifices. But our positions can withstand fire. They tried to break through from different directions: from the north, from Izyum, then from Mariupol, now from Popasnaya. Here the Russian army has partial success thanks to the “Wagnerians”. At the same time, they are supported by tactical battalion groups of the 1st and 2nd army corps, which Russia created on Ukrainian territory in 2015/2016.”
Read also: Russia will be able to redouble its missile attacks on Ukraine after acquiring missiles in Iran, — intelligence
“During the eight months of the war, the Russian Federation did not achieve its goal, but in no case did it abandon it”
As the GUR representative explained, the occupiers are waiting for a Ukrainian offensive to liberate Crimea.
“They are building new defense lines not only in Crimea, but also further north in the Kherson region to intercept the Ukrainian offensive against Crimea as early as possible. But this is not an entirely new phenomenon. Russia had already expanded its defenses in Crimea even before the invasion. Until February, two or three tactical battalion groups were deployed there on a rotational basis. Artillery fire support is very important for offensive operations. So we primarily need ammunition for the German self-propelled howitzer, the Polish Krab system and more missiles for the American Khymars systems.
Russia, Skibitsky told German journalists, mainly lacks missiles and combat drones.
“According to our information, the Russian army only has 120 Iskander missiles. Before the war, they were about 500. Now the Black Sea Fleet spends most of its time near its headquarters in Sevastopol. After the destruction of the cruiser Moskva and other warships in the battle for Snake Island, they are apparently afraid to conduct operations too far from the Crimea. Meanwhile, we have good anti-ship missiles. But Russia’s Kalibr missiles and sea-launched missiles remain a threat to us. In addition, the aviation of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation controls a large part of the Black Sea. This is not only a problem of Ukraine. Several Caliber missiles, for example, flew over the territory of Moldova. And the Russian military presence poses a threat to other countries in the Black Sea region as well.”.
Read also in “FACTS”: “Even people with access to classified information do not have a clear idea”: an expert on the reasons for the fall of missiles in Poland.
Read us on the Telegram channel, Facebook and Instagram