Apartment prices in Moscow on the secondary market in the fall of 2022, forecast

Brokers are worried. In the past week, many of their customers have changed their minds about renting or buying something. This is especially true for expensive housing: in Moscow, the demand for renting such apartments fell by almost 50% in a matter of days.

Buy-sell deals also rained down: buyers started postponing them. They also tell something completely incredible: allegedly, the sellers of Moscow housing began to dump. These are the escapees from the mobilization and now they want to urgently sell the apartment so that they have something to live on abroad.

KP, with the help of experts, found out what is really happening with real estate.

“EVERYONE WANTS TO HIRE”

Let’s start with the lease and the capital desired by many – at least it was.

– The situation on the rental market in Moscow for those wishing to rent something was not the best even before the mobilization. Since February, the demand has been steadily decreasing, while the supply of apartments, on the contrary, is increasing. In September, landlords in Moscow offered 80% more apartments than in February, Vladimir Shchekin, co-owner of the Rodina Group, told KP.

According to the expert, more remote jobs have appeared, in general, the employment situation has worsened due to the departure of foreign companies. There were expectations that gradually everything would return to normal. But they did not materialize.

– Now in Moscow, the number of people willing to rent an apartment is 10% less than at the beginning of September, and 15% less than at the end of September 2021. The price of rent has decreased by about 5%, – says Vladimir Shchekin. – And in the coming months we expect a recession in the rental market.

TAKE A PAUSE

“People are in a hurry, people have a lot of rash actions,” says Roman Vikhlyantsev, a council member of the Moscow Guild of Realtors.

It is about buying and selling.

– On the one hand, someone removes apartments from sale. On the other hand, the “urgent purchase” category – that is, when you need to sell an apartment as quickly as possible – a few days after the announcement of partial mobilization, it tripled, – says the broker.

Many buyers have taken a break – they are waiting to see how events will develop.

– There were also unusually many willing to give a discount of 5 – 15% for a quick sale of real estate – says Nadezhda Korka, managing partner of Metrium. – These are citizens who will emigrate. Most of the discounted apartments have good liquidity (ie the discount is not given because the apartments have defects). But I believe that in a few weeks the number of such offers will run out.

Banks add fuel to the fire of general confusion.

– Loan refusals have become more frequent, some banks have informed us that they temporarily stop granting loans to men of military age or will approve “through one”. And in some they warned that they will raise interest rates due to increased risks, – says Roman Vikhlyantsev.

– Most of the buyers who have already received approval from the mortgage bank are still determined to complete the transaction because they are afraid of a sharp rise in interest rates on loans, as happened in the spring – says Vladimir Shchekin.

“TWO CAPITOLS RAGE”

According to analysts, the desire to change places in connection with the mobilization has mainly affected the capitals – Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the depths of Russia, there have been no significant changes in the rental market.

– More panic is observed in housing sales. In the southern regions and Sochi, there are cases when those who urgently had to leave their homeland are trying to sell apartments at a discount of 30-40% – said Valery Kostrenkov, an expert on real estate investments.

And some of them see potential home buyers in the mobilized in the future. After all, they were promised a solid allowance – especially if you look at it through the eyes of residents of places where a salary of 40 thousand rubles is a lot.

– I do not exclude the authorities from reformatting the military mortgage program in order to attract as many people as possible to the army. The demand for certain civil specialists will certainly increase, and they will also be encouraged to be stimulated by affordable mortgages, Vladimir Shtekin predicts.

“It is too early to talk about any trends,” says Alexander Tsiganov, head of the “Mortgage residential lending and financial instruments for real estate” department of the Financial University. – Someone will decide what to sell. Someone – that soon everything will become cheaper and you have to wait. And someone will want to buy as soon as possible, just in case, because “if they are mobilized, in this case all debts will be written off and the apartment will remain with their relatives.” The trends are contradictory.

INSTEAD OF AFTERWORD

“Demand falls even without mobilization”

In general, experts do not rule out that a “price correction” awaits us in the housing market in the future. Beneath this wording lies a sad fact for sellers: the price will have to be reduced.

– It’s not even about mobilization – the vice president of the Russian Guild of Realtors, Konstantin Aprelev, lists the reasons. – Already in December last year, there was a tendency to decrease demand. This was caused by two reasons. The first is the significant rise in prices that has occurred over the past two years. The second is the reduction in jobs and incomes of the population, despite the fact that mortgage rates have risen. And this year, this trend only took hold.

Aprelev suggests that we recall 2014 with its rather modest, by today’s standards, sanctions. Then, after three to six months from the beginning of the crisis, real estate prices in most regions began to fall, which lasted for a year and a half. According to the analyst, the situation is worse now. Uncertainty is growing. Many are simply afraid to enter into a mortgage for 20-30 years.